NBA Play-In Showdown: Trae Young Eyes Clutch Finish for Hawks, Grizzlies Aim to Lock Down Mavs in Defensive Duel
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With the 2025 NBA Playoffs officially underway, the basketball betting scene is on fire. CBS Sports is stepping up with daily expert picks throughout the postseason to keep fans and bettors in the game. Senior analyst Sam Quinn will be delivering at least one carefully crafted pick for every single matchup from now until the final buzzer of the NBA Finals. Whether you're placing bets or just following the action, CBS Sports has your winning edge this postseason.
NBA Play-In Showdown: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks — Why Atlanta Holds the Fourth-Quarter Edge
As we head deeper into the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament, one glaring weakness continues to define the Miami Heat’s season — their fourth-quarter collapses. Miami holds a dismal 14-28 record in clutch-time games during the 2024-25 campaign, and their net rating in these late-game scenarios sits at an alarming -34.4 since the trade deadline. That stat alone casts serious doubt on their ability to close tight games.
Although their previous play-in matchup against the Chicago Bulls didn’t expose this flaw due to the lopsided score, it said more about Chicago’s lack of experience and inability to contain Miami’s sharpshooter Tyler Herro. The Atlanta Hawks, however, pose a much tougher challenge. They can throw defensive specialist Dyson Daniels on Herro, limiting his impact, while also leaning on their own elite closer — the ever-clutch Trae Young.
Instead of betting the overall game line, a smarter move lies in the fourth-quarter moneyline bet. FanDuel offers Atlanta at -104 to win the fourth quarter, which presents strong value considering Miami’s late-game struggles.
The Smart Bet: Take the Hawks at -104 to win the fourth quarter — especially if the game stays close heading into the final frame.
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NBA Play-In Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies – Why the Under 220.5 Total Is the Smart Bet
As the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament heats up, the matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies presents a unique opportunity for savvy bettors. This game is shaping up to be a defensive grind, and here's why the under 220.5 total points is the most strategic play.
Dallas’ Guard Deficiency: A Major Offensive Setback
The Dallas Mavericks are struggling with serious backcourt issues. In their recent game against Sacramento, head coach Jason Kidd opted for an oversized lineup, starting players like Klay Thompson—now more of a wing/forward than a guard. Guards Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy saw a combined total of just four minutes, suggesting Kidd is leaning away from traditional ball-handlers.
Without capable guards who can create off the dribble, Dallas lacks the offensive dynamism needed to exploit Memphis’ defense. Expect slower-paced sets and fewer fast-break opportunities from the Mavericks.
Memphis: A Ja Morant Question Mark and a Defensive Pivot
On the other end, Memphis Grizzlies’ star Ja Morant is either playing hobbled or not at all due to a recent ankle injury. In his absence or limited capacity, expect to see more of Scotty Pippen Jr., a gritty, defense-first guard who offers a stark contrast to Morant’s explosive offense.
With Pippen Jr. leading the charge, the Grizzlies are likely to lean on defense and structured half-court sets. Combine this with the fact that neither team is operating at full offensive capacity, and you’ve got a strong case for a low-scoring affair.
The Best Bet: Take the Under 220.5 Total Points
All signs point toward a slower-paced game with limited offensive firepower. This matchup isn’t likely to be a shootout — rather, it’s shaping up to be a battle of attrition with defensive intensity and minimal scoring runs.
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